Investing with Insight
At Appleton, we value active engagement and interaction with financial advisors and clients. Investing with insight helps us meet client objectives. And by sharing our economic and market perspectives, we foster deeper relationships. Here’s what we’re talking about this month.
Review and Outlook
"There seems to be a “Groundhog Day” element to writing economic commentary lately. At the start of June, we are still concerned about tariff uncertainty, as well as the scope of federal layoffs, and unless you look at the details, it is entirely possible to miss the fact that another month has passed..."
"The whipsawing of President Trump’s trade war that intensified on April 2nd will have many unintended consequences. One will be that incoming economic data will be extremely hard to interpret for at least the next several months. Before discussing specific releases, we’d like to pause and think about the various ways we expect data to be distorted..."
"A common theme in recent client conversations is that the economic risks we currently see in the markets aren’t simply the size of announced tariffs or widespread federal layoffs per se. Rather, it’s the amount of uncertainty both have created and the impact it’s having on consumer and business behavior. The news cycle has been moving far faster than economic releases, but we are seeing the effects of these announcements..."
Economic and Market Commentary
"The high-grade tax-exempt markets are typically characterized by relative price stability, particularly when contrasted with lower grade credits, let alone equities. But it’s been anything but the case so far in April, as extreme volatility has driven up municipal yields at an unusual pace. Advisors and investors are understandably looking for answers, and we aim to provide some below. The primary driver of this turbulence is a liquidity crunch, which has been exacerbated by the factors noted below..."
"Cutting through the “noise” during times of high market volatility can be challenging but this piece attempts to do so by offering our perspective concerning recent market events, some historical context, and a few forward thoughts. Appleton’s Wealth Managers are available to discuss your personal circumstances, so please reach out..."
Quarterly Perspectives
Q1
"Making sense of the economy and markets can be challenging in any era, although today’s environment is proving to be particularly perplexing to many. Context and perspective are critical, as it is all too easy to get lost in the day’s headlines and varying predictions. With apologies to the long running staple of David Letterman’s former “Late Night” show, here is an Appleton “Top 10 List..."
Q4
"Economic developments rarely have isolated impact as one factor affects another. A pandemic-influenced spike in inflation was followed in 2022 by rapid Fed Funds rate increases and an inversion of the US Treasury and AAA Municipal yield curves..."
Q3
"Life is inherently uncertain despite our best efforts to mitigate risk and plan for tomorrow’s eventualities. For many of us, control offers a sense of security, yet the reality is that unexpected events inevitably occur, and personal transitions, however challenging, are sometimes necessary. That’s why Appleton places great emphasis on the human element..."
Limited Bond Market Impact Expected From US Debt Downgrade