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Economic & Market Commentaries

January Offers Headline Inflation Relief, Although Concerns Remain

February 23, 2026

"Headline inflation came in a tenth better than expected at +0.2% with core in line at +0.3%. Annualized inflation rates in turn fell to +2.4% and +2.5%, respectively. The market seized on this report as further progress in the “last mile” fight against inflation; longer rates fell modestly, and the futures market began pricing in about a 50-50 possibility of a third Fed Funds Rate cut before year-end..."

2026 Municipal Sector Drivers

January 12, 2026

2026 Municipal Sector Drivers

Don’t Forget About Municipals

December 2, 2025

"Uncertainty is the norm in the capital markets, yet municipal bond investors have recently been forced to grapple with unusually high levels. Record YTD net issuance, monetary policy questions, and a recent government shutdown have all led to unsettled markets..."

Potential Fiscal Implications of New York City’s Election

November 12, 2025

"New York City recently published the Comptroller’s monthly “By the Numbers” report that confirmed that YoY tax revenue collections for FY25 increased by $6.1B (+8.3%) to $80.3B. Property taxes (43% of total revenue) rose 5.4% YoY, while non-property taxes surged by a combined 10.6%..."

State Revenues and Municipal Credit Quality Are Holding Up Well

September 23, 2025

"Mirroring the resilient national economy, State tax revenues have followed a relatively positive trend, particularly after a short-lived decline in late 2023 through early 2024. The trailing-twelve-month growth rate of +2.4% as of August 2025 is not remarkable, but more than strong enough to support essential budgetary needs..."

A Closer Look at Municipal Curve Steepness & Why it Matters

August 25, 2025

"At Appleton, we view curve steepness as an opportunity to potentially rotate out of shorter-dated bonds and reinvest the proceeds further out on the curve, but still within our target maturity ranges. This can generate greater income for clients. The return of relative steepness to the intermediate portion of the municipal curve is a welcome development, as it affords investors willing to accept a moderate amount of interest rate exposure with an opportunity to pick up substantially greater tax-advantaged income."

Don’t Forget About Municipals:

August 4, 2025

"Uncertainty is the norm in the capital markets, yet municipal bond investors have recently been forced to grapple with unusually high levels. Record YTD net issuance, rate volatility, monetary policy questions, and Fed leadership speculation have all led to increasingly unsettled markets. But with this uncertainty comes opportunity, and for those seeking tax-advantaged income, high-quality municipal bonds currently offer attractive yields at compelling valuations along with sound credit fundamentals..."

Municipal Market Implications of the Tax & Budget Bill (“OBBBA”)

July 16, 2025

"After months of negotiations, President Trump signed into law the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”)” on July 4th. While there are wide-ranging implications for the economy, individuals, and corporations, it is our opinion that the impact of the OBBBA provisions on the municipal market will be relatively modest..."

Limited Bond Market Impact Expected From US Debt Downgrade

May 20, 2025

"Moody’s Investor Services downgraded the US Government’s credit rating from Aaa/negative to Aa1/stable on May 16th, reflecting accelerating deficit growth and associated borrowing requirements, a fiscal situation exacerbated by recently elevated borrowing costs. Despite considerable attention being paid to federal spending cuts, Moody’s noted a lack of faith in the willingness of Congress to actually reduce the deficit, and US debt levels have now reached thresholds that are materially weaker than other Aaa-rated peers..."

What’s Behind Municipal Market Dislocation?

April 14, 2025

"The high-grade tax-exempt markets are typically characterized by relative price stability, particularly when contrasted with lower grade credits, let alone equities. But it’s been anything but the case so far in April, as extreme volatility has driven up municipal yields at an unusual pace. Advisors and investors are understandably looking for answers, and we aim to provide some below. The primary driver of this turbulence is a liquidity crunch, which has been exacerbated by the factors noted below..."