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Economic & Market Commentaries

What’s Behind Municipal Market Dislocation?

"The high-grade tax-exempt markets are typically characterized by relative price stability, particularly when contrasted with lower grade credits, let alone equities. But it’s been anything but the case so far in April, as extreme volatility has driven up municipal yields at an unusual pace. Advisors and investors are understandably looking for answers, and we aim to provide some below. The primary driver of this turbulence is a liquidity crunch, which has been exacerbated by the factors noted below..."
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Tariff Turmoil: Observations and Advice

"Cutting through the “noise” during times of high market volatility can be challenging but this piece attempts to do so by offering our perspective concerning recent market events, some historical context, and a few forward thoughts. Appleton’s Wealth Managers are available to discuss your personal circumstances, so please reach out..."
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Diving in the Shallow End: Municipal Bond ETF Liquidity

"Exchange-Traded Funds, or ETFs, have arguably been one of the most important investment innovations in recent decades. They allow retail investors to combine the modest investment minimum and broad diversification benefits of mutual funds with the real time intra-day liquidity of stocks. Further, ETFs also offer tax efficiency, in part by not requiring a sale of securities (and the potential realization of capital gains) to meet other investors’ withdrawals..."
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2025 Municipal Sector Outlooks

2025 Appleton Partners Municipal Sector Outlooks
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Los Angeles Department of Water & Power 

As the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County edges closer to complete containment, ramifications for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (the “Department”) remain uncertain.  To date, there has been no implication that the Department’s Power System infrastructure was responsible for igniting the fire. The investigation into ignition remains ongoing, led by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.
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Los Angeles Wildfires

"Our thoughts are with our clients, business partners, and all individuals whom the Los Angeles area wildfires have impacted. Please note that this commentary is written strictly from a credit perspective and is not intended to minimize the devastating impact of this natural disaster on people and property..."
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Implications of Sales Tax Revenues on Municipalities

"Bank of America provides monthly updates on state tax revenue trends. In the Bank’s latest publication it noted that median sales tax collections in July are pointing to a 0.4% decline, which would be the second consecutive drop .."
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Is It Closing Time on the Short Duration Trade?

"It is often said that predicting market direction correctly is much easier than timing. We concur with that sentiment, and one only needs to point to the fact that a year ago Appleton highlighted the risk of holding short-term bonds despite attractive front-end yields. Those yields are still appealing, although with Fed Funds rate cuts likely on the near-term horizon it’s time to revisit the case for adding duration..."
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The Last Mile in the Fight Against Inflation: Shelter Costs

"A common refrain when discussing the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight to quell inflation is “the last mile is the hardest.” On one hand, progress so far has come faster than many had anticipated, with both headline and core inflation falling below 4% before the end of 2023. This was largely due to volatile non-core food and energy prices, however, and core goods, where supply chain normalization has allowed transitory-after-all price pressures to quickly fade..."
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The Case for 2024 Rate Cuts: Growth Is No Reason Not to Cut

"After months of discussions about how deeply the FOMC would cut rates in 2024, nothing speaks to the rapid shift in market sentiment better than the number of questions we’ve fielded recently about why the Fed should cut rates at all this year..."
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