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Private Client Review and Outlook

February 2024

"The most important moment of the Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st was Powell’s response to the final question about the risks posed by economic strength. He indicated in no uncertain terms that the Fed was no longer very concerned about strong consumption or growth, since inflation had continued to fall the entire second half of the year despite a fast-growing economy..."
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January 2024

"December brought renewed talk of a Fed “pivot,” and growing expectations for Fed Funds rate cuts met only token resistance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell."
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December 2023

"Last month we flagged October’s Beige Book as a potential inflection point in economic activity, with the summer’s gangbuster’s growth seemingly slowing to a crawl in late September. "
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November 2023

"As the end of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle approaches, the Fed Funds Rate has taken a backseat to other factors in explaining longer dated yields."
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October 2023

"McCarthy failed a no-confidence vote on Tuesday evening. It remains to be seen who will replace McCarthy and the process has the potential to significantly delay the 2024 budget and increases the chances of a November shutdown."
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September 2023

"The markets expected Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to represent a major policy shift, akin to 2022’s “steely resolve to beat inflation.” They were disappointed; Powell’s remarks were neutral enough that both hawks and doves came away believing he was in their camp."
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August 2023

"While one month does not make a trend, July was a very good one for US economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation."
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July 2023

"While the June 14th Fed meeting gave us the “hawkish pause” the market was anticipating, investors severely underestimated the degree of hawkishness the Fed delivered."
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June 2023

"Washington’s debt ceiling showdown might have dominated the news in May, but it ultimately proved to be a non-event."
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May 2023

"Q1 GDP missed, +1.1% vs. +1.9%, yet below the surface it was a fairly strong report. After a persistent build-up over the last two years, a sizable drop in inventory levels detracted 2.26% from quarterly growth as consumption exceeded production."
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