Wealth Management Review and Outlook

"December’s FOMC meeting offered plenty for market participants to digest despite none of the main elements being surprising. For one, both the statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference made it clear the Fed now expects to be on hold for at least several months..."

"The federal government reopened on November 12th after the longest shutdown in American history. The resulting continuing resolution will only fund most of the government through January 30th, so a second shutdown is possible, maybe even probable. Until then, however, we will be wrestling with two concurrent problems..."

"October was largely a quiet macro month, thanks to the ongoing government shutdown, until the FOMC meeting ended the month with a bang. We thought Chairman Powell might cautiously open the door to a pause after October’s 25bps cut as we still see growing inflation pressures..."

"Backward-looking data is rarely market-moving, but what made September’s GDP revisions especially interesting is the way it called into question 2025’s prevailing narrative. While the headline growth rate of 3.8% alone would be noteworthy, the details are now significantly stronger..."

"For the second straight year, the biggest economic news of August came in Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole testimony. In a speech taken as dovish (likely more so than he intended), Powell brought the Fed’s dual mandate back into balance after an extended period in which the price stability mandate dominated. And, while the Fed remains concerned over inflation in the pipeline, Powell painted labor market weakness as a more immediate risk. In response, futures markets fully priced in a September cut..."

"July ended with a bang, with the final week so packed with macroeconomic data that the Federal Reserve meeting on 7/30 was almost an afterthought. The bad news is that very little of the week’s data was pretty. The good news is that data is at least telling a consistent story after a long period of uncertainty..."

"June was bookended with two labor reports that received very similar, and we believe incorrect, market reactions. Both May’s 139k (revised to 144k) and June’s 147k job gains were objectively weak releases, below the long-term trendline. But the markets treated both as strong due to beating even worse expectations (126k and 106k, respectively)..."

"There seems to be a “Groundhog Day” element to writing economic commentary lately. At the start of June, we are still concerned about tariff uncertainty, as well as the scope of federal layoffs, and unless you look at the details, it is entirely possible to miss the fact that another month has passed..."

"The whipsawing of President Trump’s trade war that intensified on April 2nd will have many unintended consequences. One will be that incoming economic data will be extremely hard to interpret for at least the next several months. Before discussing specific releases, we’d like to pause and think about the various ways we expect data to be distorted..."

"A common theme in recent client conversations is that the economic risks we currently see in the markets aren’t simply the size of announced tariffs or widespread federal layoffs per se. Rather, it’s the amount of uncertainty both have created and the impact it’s having on consumer and business behavior. The news cycle has been moving far faster than economic releases, but we are seeing the effects of these announcements..."