Wealth Management Review and Outlook

"The incoming “Trump 2.0” Administration’s policy priorities remain in flux, and House Speaker Johnson’s near failure to be seated is a fresh reminder of the thin legislative path open to the GOP.  With so much still unknown, major market impacts are likely to come from public policy, but for now we will focus on hard economic data..."

"Even without an election, today’s macro environment would be interesting. Markets are focused on labor weakness and have broadly moved on from inflation concerns. What makes this fascinating , however, is that we think markets have it backward..."

"The biggest October economic news came on the first of November, when October’s jobs report showed a mere 12k jobs created that month. While abysmal on the surface, we recommend interpreting the jobs report with caution for three reasons..."

"September’s Fed decision was going to be a surprise no matter what, a rarity in the Powell era, with cut expectations closely balanced between the 25 and 50bps camps before the meeting. Powell ultimately went with 50..."

"Cyclical change is often clearer after the fact than during the process. Inflation has garnered the lion’s share of economic attention over recent years, the fight against which prompted 11 rate increases from 2022 to 2023..."

"After a spring marked by volatile economic data and a first half of 2024 plagued by uncertainty, July’s “goldilocks” economic data was followed at the end of the month by a surprisingly weak jobs report that raised recession fears and roiled markets...

"Three major themes emerged in June that we believe will be critical over the summer and fall; solidified improvement in inflation, growing evidence of a softening economy, and renewed political risk. We will address all three..."

"In some ways the April PCE inflation report, released in late May, was the inverse of February’s; it met the consensus +0.2% mark, but by the barest possible margin..."

"April may have indeed been the cruelest month for rate sensitive investors, as a third consecutive strong CPI print sent Treasury yields soaring early in the month. The print wasn’t quite as bad as the market reaction indicated..."

"Rather than harbinger of weakness to come, we found the revised employment reports more consistent with the Fed’s projections of a “soft landing...”