Review and Outlook

"Washington’s debt ceiling showdown might have dominated the news in May, but it ultimately proved to be a non-event."

"Q1 GDP missed, +1.1% vs. +1.9%, yet below the surface it was a fairly strong report. After a persistent build-up over the last two years, a sizable drop in inventory levels detracted 2.26% from quarterly growth as consumption exceeded production."

"The most surprising part of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the largest since 2008, was that it failed for very old-fashioned reasons."

"The “immaculate deflation” narrative ended abruptly at the beginning of February after a series of data points dashed hopes for an early end to the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle."

"The standout moment of the Federal Reserve press conference on February 1st was when Chairman Powell was given an opportunity to pivot and push back against market faith but chose not to."

"There is currently a broad consensus that the Federal Reserve will overtighten in their fight against inflation, causing a recession. And, for the bulls in the room, the strength of that consensus is maybe the best contrarian indicator for hope."